On the brink of giving up on dot-comming, I’ve decided to stage an all-out comeback, or as much of an all-out comeback as I possibly can. My bold plan is to update this blog daily, amid the demands of parenting two children, running a household, maintaining a social life, and, oh yes, earning a living.
Well, here we are. It’s 2006. The economy is either booming or busting, depending on who you ask. The stock market will either soar to new heights, or crash amid the housing-bubble pop. The economy will either take off like the feral pig population, feeding on an influx of corporate spending, or pull back on a drop-off in consumer spending. It’s hard to know where we’re going with this economy when, with all the financial propaganda and misinformation out there, I’m never really be sure about where we’ve been.
But the Dow dropped over 100 points on December 27, and apparently it has to do with the bond markets signalling a likely slowdown in the economy. Who knows — it could snap back up again soon, or this could be the beginning of a long, painful slide.
Meanwhile, education is on my mind frequently. The need to improve it. The need to fund it. The need to be able to afford the funding of it. When I’m not thinking about education, I’m often thinking about pensions, mainly local, state, and federal municipal pensions, which are a freaky obsession for me. A social worker, of all people, worrying about pensions! Clearly I am all too conscious of my Jungian shadow — the part of me that fears that if social workers ran the world, we would be spending even more money we don’t have, trying to take care of the needs of the many. Somewhere (God help us) we really do have to draw the line on spending — defense spending, corporate-subsidy spending, social welfare spending, education spending. And I’m always trying to figure out where and when to draw that line.
So check back as often as you can, every day if you like. I will do my best to keep engaging and stimulating your mind as I do the same for myself.
Kmareka.com 
Regarding your post on the economy, there’s one thing I would like to add. We are very close to experiencing something called an “inverted yield curve.” This means that short-term treasuries/bonds pay a higher yield than long-term bonds. This is the exact opposite of the way it’s “supposed” to work. Usually, you receive a higher rate of interest for having your money tied-up for a longer period of time.
The story at Smartmoney.com explains it fairly well. One of yesterday’s headlines read:
Yield Curve Inverts For First Time In Five Years
http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20051227-000199-1030
The inversion was only temporary, but this situation has been coming on for some time. As the Fed has been raising rates for the last 18 months, the long-term yields had stubbornly refused to move, a phenomenon that even Alan Greenspan couldn’t effectively explain. Now, with the last increase, the short-term rates have pulled about even, so any dip in long-term yield pushes them below the short rates, resulting in an inversion.
As the Smartmoney article points out, this inversion last occurred in 2000–right before the economy tanked. In fact, the inverted yield curve has been an excellent predictor of economic downturns. The classic example was in the late 70s/early 80s, before the economy went south and stayed there for a good 5 years. It wasn’t until Reagan raised taxes that things started turning around.
What is most interesting is that there has been very, very little coverage about the inversion. It has been coming for at least a year, but no one is talking about it. Instead, what you’ve been getting in the financial press is a lot of hot air about how great the economy is doing. (And it is–for those at the top of the economic pyramid.) Rather, the financial press is telling you to invest; that earnings are great, that companies have a ton of money, and that they are going to start spending it, taking pressure off the need for continued consumer spending.
Sure. And I believe in The Tooth Fairy, too.
Good job, K, glad to see youre still at it. I may have a f/ story on joan, as she is due for more xrays on 1/13. Prayers appreciated.
Walt
Walter,
You have our prayers. For inspiration, too, you might want to know that Carolyn Daniel, whose designs we featured in the same issue as your essay, has had a truly astonishing response to Herceptin. It has shrunk the tumors in her liver and breast, and she is being considered NED (No evidence of disease). This, after very dire predictions just a year before.
The new world order is taking over the world! Vote for Ron Paul in the 2008 election or the bill of rights will be overturned by hillary! She will
destroy the right to bear arms, and theyre already talking about banning free speech with this new fairness docterine! Wake up people america is
under attck by paid off politicans that think we dont know what theyre doing!
http://www.faction3.us