Rasmussen has just published a poll which indicates that if the Senate race ends up being Whitehouse against Chafee, the two will likely be neck-and-neck. If Laffey wins the primary, Whitehouse is polling with a substantial lead.

Rhode Island: GOP Incumbents Struggle in Blue State

May 4, 2006–Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) continues to have a very tough row to hoe in his reelection battle, and fails to reach 50% support against his likely Democratic opponent. He also faces a stiff challenge for the Republican nomination from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey.

When voters are asked about prospective match-ups, Chafee narrowly leads the likely Democratic candidate, former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, by 44% to 41%, a tossup (see crosstabs). Another Democrat, Secretary of State Matt Brown, dropped out of the race in late April.

Rhode Island is one of the more critical states in the electoral competition for control of the United States Senate. If this very Blue State retains its Republican Senator, prospects for a Democratic takeover of the Senate are greatly diminished.

Chafee’s Primary Election challenger, Mayor Laffey, trails Whitehouse by 19 percentage points, 51% to 32%. If Laffey wins the Republican Primary, this Senate seat is very likely to shift from the GOP to the Democrat’s column.

One more troubling sign for Senator Chafee is that Laffey does better among Republicans in the General Election match-ups against Whitehouse. Laffey earns 70% of the GOP vote while Chafee gets just 60%. However, in Rhode Island, unaffiliated voters can participate in the primary and Chafee does better than Whitehouse among such voters.

The gubernatorial incumbent is also struggling. Republican Governor Donald Carcieri is neck and neck with Lieutenant Governor Charles Fogarty, a Democrat. Carcieri attracts 41% of the vote to Fogarty’s 42%.