Experts Say Bush’s Claims of Threat Ain’t So

Is President Bush exaggerating and distorting the truth in order to justify staying the course in Iraq? Say it ain’t so! William Douglas of the McClatchy Newspapers consults the experts:

Is there any truth to ‘the enemy would follow us here?’

It’s become President Bush’s mantra, his main explanation for why he won’t withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq anytime soon.

In speech after speech, in statement after statement, Bush insists that “this is a war in which, if we were to leave before the job is done, the enemy would follow us here.�

The line, which Bush repeated Wednesday in a speech to troops at California’s Fort Irwin, suggests a chilling picture of warfare on American streets.

But is it true?

Military and diplomatic analysts say it isn’t. They accuse Bush of exaggerating the threat that enemy forces in Iraq pose to the U.S. mainland.

“The president is using a primitive, inarticulate argument that leaves him open to criticism and caricature,â€? said James Jay Carafano, a homeland security and counterterrorism expert for the Heritage Foundation, a conservative policy organization. “It’s a poor choice of words that doesn’t convey the essence of the problem – that walking away from a problem doesn’t solve anything.â€?

U.S. military, intelligence and diplomatic experts in Bush’s own government say the violence in Iraq is primarily a struggle for power between Shiite and Sunni Muslim Iraqis seeking to dominate their society, not a crusade by radical Sunni jihadists bent on carrying the battle to the United States.

Foreign-born jihadists are present in Iraq, but they’re believed to number only between 4 percent and 10 percent of the estimated 30,000 insurgent fighters – 1,200 to 3,000 terrorists – according to the Defense Intelligence Agency and a recent study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a center-right research center.

“Attacks by terrorist groups account for only a fraction of insurgent violence,� said a February DIA report.

While acknowledging that terrorists could commit a catastrophic act on U.S. soil at any time – whether U.S. forces are in Iraq or not – the likelihood that enemy combatants from Iraq might follow departing U.S. forces back to the United States is remote at best, experts say. [full text]

One thought on “Experts Say Bush’s Claims of Threat Ain’t So

  1. In the meantime, ABC News has reported that we’re supporting radical Sunni jihadists affiliated with–get ready–al Qaida. We’re providing this support so they can infiltrate Iran.

    I thought AQ were the bad guys. Remember “dead or alive”? Cheney is still spreading the lie that there was a connection between Saddam and AQ. Now, the irony is, there really is a connection between the Bush and AQ.

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